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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still